DF 67 – Tracking current and forecasting future land-use impacts of agricul­tural value chains


ETH Zentrum campus, Alumni Pavillon

Materials from renewable feedstocks may cause significant environmental impacts due to
land use and land use change related to feedstock sourcing. Whilst these impacts are clearly
spatially-dependent, spatially-resolved impact assessment is often hampered by lack of data, and in some cases, methods or models. In addition, the location and impacts of production are likely to change in the future, e.g. due to the consequences of climate change and due to sourcing trends in a growing economy and considering geopolitical conditions.

This discussion forum will focus on

  1. Methods that can be used to track the current locations of crop production systems in complex supply chains to support spatially resolved impact assessment and
  2. Methods and tools to predict future locations of crops in the context of megatrends such as climate change and increasing demand for agricultural raw materials.
  3. Advances of methods for spatially resolved consideration of environmental impacts of land use change will also be covered in this LCA forum.

Download:    DF67-Programme_Land-use_impacts_of_agricultural_value_chains.pdf

Livestream / Video Recordings: Access to the livestreamlng will be available at the day of the event (payment required).
Videos will be available for free after DF 67 (estimated from November 11, 2017) via this link:  https://www.video.ethz.ch/events/lca/2017/autumn/67th.html

TimeTitleSpeakerAffiliation
8:30 Registration, coffee & croissants  
9:00 Welcome and introduction
“Framework for the assessment of renewables”
DF67-00_Introduction.pdf
Sarah Sim  Unilever, UK 
 Session 1 -- Tracking and inventorizing (current) land use and land use change[Jens Lansche] Agroscope, Switzerland 
 Methods that can be used to track the current locations of crop production systems in complex supply chains to support spatially resolved impact assessment.  
09:25 Implementation of LUC in ecoinvent
DF67-01_Reinhard.pdf
Juergen Reinhard Quantis, Switzerland 
09:50 Using land use & land cover datasets to assess variability in estimates of land use change and associated GHG emissions in selected regions of Indonesia
DF67-02_VanBeijma.pdf
Sybrand van Beijma Agrimetrics, UK 
10:15 Quantifying land use impacts through Multi-Regional Input-Output tables
DF67-03_Moran.pdf
Dan Moran NTNU, Norway 
10:40 Transparency for Sustainable Economies (Trase) -- an innovative data-driven approach to mapping commodity supply chains: applications for sustainability assessments and LCA
DF67-04_Godar.pdf
Javier Godar (skype) TRASE, Sweden 
11:05 Discussion  
11:20 Coffee break  
 Session 2 -- Forecasting (future) land use and land use change[Henry King] Unilever, UK 
 Methods and tools to predict future locations of crops in the context of megatrends such as climate change and increasing demand for agricultural raw materials.  
11:40 Modeling land use for global biodiversity assessments: discrete allocation at 10 arc-seconds
DF67-05_Schipper.pdf
Aafke Schipper PBL, The Netherlands 
12:05 Interdisciplinary approaches – integrating social sciences, econometrics and geography to forecast spatial patterns of land use at local and global scales
DF67-06_Verburg.pdf
Peter Verburg Free University, The Netherlands 
12:30 Land use change projections – linking economic constraints and constraints of the physical environment
DF67-07_Leclere.pdf
David Leclère IIASA, Austria 
12:55 Discussion  
13:10 Lunch  
 Short presentations
(incl. 5 minutes of Q&A; after the final presentation)
[Sandra Marquardt] Radboud University, The Netherlands 
14:10 Recent developments in indirect Land-Use Change (iLUC) modelling
DF67-08_DeRosa.pdf
Michele De Rosa 2.-0 LCA Consultants, Denmark 
14:20 Variability of Greenhouse Gas Footprints of Crude Palm Oil production in Indonesia
DF67-09_Lam.pdf
Wan Yee Lam Radboud University, The Netherlands 
14:30 Incorporating FAO trade and production database to estimate supply chain location information for agricultural products
DF67-10_Liao.pdf
Xun Liao EPFL/Quantis, Switzerland 
14:40 New Land Use Change Guidance
DF67-11_Humbert.pdf
Sebastien Humbert Quantis, Switzerland 
14:55 Coffee break  
 Session 3 -- Impacts[Mark Huijbregts] Radboud University, The Netherlands 
 Advances of methods for spatially resolved consideration of environmental impacts of land use change.  
15:15 Quantifying biodiversity impacts of land use change
DF67-12_Hellweg.pdf
Stefanie Hellweg ETHZ, Switzerland 
15:30 Assessing the global biodiversity impacts of land use
DF67-13_Newbold.pdf
Tim Newbold UCL, UK 
15:55 Life Cycle Assessment Needs Predictive Spatial Modelling for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
DF67-14_Hamel.pdf
Perrine Hamel Natural Capital Project, US 
16:20 Integrated modeling to assess land use change impacts on ecosystem service provision: prospects for LCIA
DF67-15_Rugani.pdf
Benedetto Rugani Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Luxembourg 
16:45 Discussion  
 Wrap-up, announcements and farewell  
17:00 Wrap-up should synthesize the day’s topics focusing on:
• Application and incorporation of new methods into the LCA framework – methods and challenges (what are the bottlenecks)
• Uncertainties
• Usefulness in the business contexts (including issues surrounding methodological complexity (linked to higher accuracy) vs practicality)
Sarah Sim Unilever, UK 
17:15 Announcements and FarewellStefanie Hellweg ETHZ, Switzerland 

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